Semnan University of Medical Sciences

Research and Technology Vice Chancellor

Nikonahad, Ali and Khorshidi, Ali and Ghaffari, Hamid Reza and Ebrahimi Aval, Hamideh and Miri, Mohammad and Amarloei, Ali and Nourmoradi, Heshmatollah and Mohammadi, Amir (2017) A time series analysis of environmental and metrological factors impact on cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in an endemic area of Dehloran, Iran. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. pp. 14117-14123.

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The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between the environmental and metrological variables and cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) transmission and its prediction in a region susceptible to this disease prevalence using a time series model. The accurate locations of 4437 CL diagnosed from 2011 to 2015 were obtained to be used in the time series model. Temperature, number of days with temperature over 30 °C, and number of earthquake were related to CL incidence using the Seasonal Auto-correlated Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model according to the Box-Jenkins method. In addition, the relationship between land use and surface soil type in 500- and 1000-m radius around the CL patients were investigated. The SARIMA models showed significant associations between environmental and meteorological variables and CL incidence adjusted for seasonality and auto-correlation. The result indicated that there are need more robust preventive programs in earthquake-prone areas with high temperature and inceptisol soil type than other areas. In addition, the region with these characteristics should be considered as high-risk areas for CL prevalence. KEYWORDS:Cutaneous leishmaniasis; Earthquake; Environmental factors; Time series analysis

Item Type: Article
Subjects: R Medicine > R Medicine (General)
Divisions: Faculty of Medical Sciences > School of Medicine
Depositing User: Mr Vahab Moshtaghi
Date Deposited: 04 Jul 2017 09:42
Last Modified: 21 May 2018 12:26

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